Tom Williams | Reuters
Markets have been on tenterhooks wondering whether he can pull it off. Sentiment in recent days has been more optimistic, but that can swing the other way in a hurry should the central bank leader stumble this week during his semiannual testimony on monetary policy.
He has to thread the needle here with two messages. One of them is reiterating some of the comments he has made that there has been some progress on inflation,” said Robert Teeter, Silvercrest Asset Management’s head of investment policy and strategy.
“The second thing is being really persistent in terms of the outlook for rates remaining high. He’ll probably reiterate the message that rates are staying elevated for some time until inflation is clearly resolved,” Teeter added.
Should he take that stance, he’s likely to face some heat, first from the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday followed by the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
Democratic legislators in particular have been worried that the Powell Fed risks dragging down the economy, and in particular those at the lower end of the wealth scale, with its determination to fight inflation.
Slow out of the blocks
Markets also has been torn between wanting the Fed to bring down inflation and worried that it will go overboard. The central bank’s slow start tackling the rising cost of living has intensified fears that there’s virtually no way it can bring down prices without causing at least a modest recession.
“Inflation is a pernicious problem. It was made worse by the Fed not recognizing it in 2021,” said Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies.
Sri-Kumar thinks the Fed should have attacked sooner and more aggressively — for instance, with a 1.25 percentage point hike back in September 2022 when inflation as measured by the consumer price index was running at an 8.2% annual rate. Instead, the Fed in December began reducing the size of its rate hikes.
“I don’t believe in this no-landing scenario,” Sri-Kumar said, referring to a theory that the economy will see neither a “hard landing,” considered as a steep recession, nor a “soft landing,” which would be a shallower downturn.
Yes, the economy is strong. But that doesn’t mean you’re going to glide by with no recession at all,” he said. “If you’re going to have a no-landing scenario, then you’re going to accept 5% inflation, and that’s politically unacceptable. He has to work on bringing inflation down, and because the economy is so strong it’s going to get delayed. But the more delay you have in recession, the deeper it’s going to be.
‘Ongoing increases’ ahead
A monetary policy report to Congress the Fed released Friday that serves as an opener for Powell’s testimony repeated oft-used language that policymakers expect “ongoing increases” in rates.
The chair likely “will strike a tone that is both determined and measured,” Krishna Guha, head of global policy and central bank strategy at Evercore ISI, said in a client note. Powell will note the “resilience of the real economy” while cautioning that the inflation data has turned higher and the road to taming it “will be lengthy and bumpy.”
However, Guha said that Powell is unlikely to tee up the half-point, or 50 basis point, rate hike later this month that some investors fear. Market pricing on Monday pointed to about a 31% probability for the larger move, according to CME Group data.
“We think the Fed hikes 50bp in March only if inflation expectations, wages, and services inflation reaccelerate dangerously higher and/or incoming data is so strong the median peak rate ends up going up 50,” Guha wrote. “The Fed cannot end a meeting further from its destination than it was before the meeting started.”
Interpreting the data will be tricky, though, going forward.
Headline inflation actually could show a precipitous decline in March as a pop in energy prices last year around this time distorts year-over-year comparisons. The Cleveland Fed’s tracker shows all-item inflation falling from 6.2% in February to 5.4% in March. However, core inflation, excluding food and energy, is projected to increase to 5.7% from 5.5%.
Guha said it’s likely Powell could guide the Fed’s endpoint for rate hikes — the “terminal” rate — up to a 5.25%-5.5% range, or about a quarter point higher than forecast in December’s economic projections from policymakers.
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