Stock Markets: Next stop, Congress

The wrangling on Capitol Hill is not over yet.

• US President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy might have reached a deal Sunday to raise the US $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, but a handful of hard-right Republican lawmakers said on Monday they would oppose the deal, in a sign that the bipartisan agreement could. face a rocky path through Congress before the US runs out of money next week. Central to the deal are general spending caps until 2024 and lower funding for the Internal Revenue Service.

• US and UK markets were closed on Monday for Memorial Day and a bank holiday, respectively. Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 72 points, or 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures gained 0.3%. Nasdaq-100 futures climbed 0.5%. Investors have their eyes on US May jobs data due on Friday, while the April Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will be released on Wednesday.

• Major central banks were expected to pause rate hikes towards the end of 2023, but the situation is now not so clear. Sticky core inflation, tight labor markets and a surprisingly resilient global economy are leading some economists to reassess. The UK government said it is engaging with the food sector amid attempts to reduce the inflation-driven strain on British households — but dismissed the possibility of mandating price caps on supermarket goods.

• Tesla Chief Executive Elon Musk is expected to visit China this week, three people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters, in what would be his first trip to the country in three years. Musk is reportedly due to meet senior Chinese officials and to visit Tesla’s Shanghai plant.

• PRO The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) and Samsung Electronics are both important players in the increasingly competitive chip-making sector. However, when it comes to capitalizing on the growing trend of artificial intelligence, TSMC seems to have an edge.

As expected, some right-wing Republicans have voiced their opposition to the deal to raise the US debt ceiling. A crucial first test will come on Tuesday, when the House Rules Committee takes up the bill, in a necessary first step before a vote in the full House.

If approved, the deal would remove the prospect of the world’s largest economy defaulting. That would in turn allow markets to return their attention to inflation and monetary policy.

This Friday’s jobs data for May will be closely watched for signs of what the US Federal Reserve might do next. Any more tightening may start to have a real effect on the economy later this year, making it even more difficult for US small and medium companies to borrow money. Consumers are also keeping a tighter rein on their purse strings, fearing the effects of soaring inflation.

Tired of watching the politics and macroeconomic situation play out?

Technology always seems the answer. The euphoria over artificial intelligence helped add about $200 billion to Nvidia’s market cap in under two days of trading after the chipmaker released blockbuster earnings last Wednesday.

With Tesla’s Elon Musk bound for China this week, maybe that could offer some fresh trading ideas, above the macro fray.

Subscribe here to get this report sent directly to your inbox each morning before markets open.

Correction: This article has been updated to correct the spelling of Nvidia’s name.